The State of Grocery Retail 2025: Europe (Ecommerce Europe and EuroCommerce)

Summary

• Grocery sales grew by 2.4% in Europe in 2024, slightly above food price inflation of 2.3%.p.7
• 25% of consumers traded up to more expensive options in 2024, balanced by a similar proportion trading down.p.7
• Discounters reached a share of 23.2% in 2024 after gaining 0.2 percentage points from 2023.p.9
• Of 127 grocery banners examined across 11 European countries, 31% qualified as growth champions.p.10
• 55% of CEOs anticipate stability in 2025 (up from 39% in 2024), while 29% expect worsening conditions (down from 36%).p.12
• Volume growth is projected at around 0.2% annually across Europe through 2030.p.12
• Retail media spending in Europe is expected to grow at a 20% CAGR through 2030.p.14

Key insights

1. Supermarkets and hypermarkets with an above-average private label share have a 2.8 times greater likelihood of being a growth champion.p.11
2. Grocers offering a pleasant in-store shopping experience have a 2.4 times greater likelihood of being a growth champion.p.11
3. Top-quartile performers on private label and fresh quality have a 1.6 times greater likelihood of being a growth champion.p.11
4. 77% of Gen Z shoppers purchase food-to-go monthly, compared with 33% of baby boomers.p.14
5. Personalization offers a 4–6% potential uplift in revenue and retention.p.14
6. Digital capability leaders deliver 2.9x higher shareholder returns than peers.p.14
7. Grocery retail M&A activity increased by more than 30% over the last five years.p.14