Rethinking Infrastructure Financing in Nigeria: A Theoretical Analysis of Factors Influencing Alternative Financing Selection (International Journal of Earth Design and Innovation Research)

Summary

• Nigeria faces an infrastructure financing gap estimated at well above US$3 trillion over two decades to raise its infrastructure stock toward the 70% of GDP benchmark.p.2
• A systematic literature review following PRISMA 2020 identified 69 peer-reviewed studies published mainly between 2020 and 2026 on infrastructure financing selection determinants.p.1
• Nigeria's Debt Management Office raised ₦1.09 trillion across six sovereign Sukuk issuances between 2017 and 2023 to finance road construction.p.2
• The review critically examined 5 theoretical lenses—Resource Dependence Theory, Decision Theory, Agency Theory, Stakeholder Theory, and Transaction Cost Economics—for explaining financing choices.p.1
• The 69 synthesized studies were categorized into eight determinant groups: project, financial, institutional, market, environmental, stakeholder, socio-economic, and governance factors.p.1

Key insights

1. Public budgetary allocations in Nigeria cannot meet an infrastructure financing requirement estimated at US$3 trillion over twenty-three years.p.2
2. Sovereign Sukuk issuances in Nigeria generated ₦1.09 trillion by late 2023, funding over 4,100 kilometres of road networks and nine bridges across six geopolitical zones.p.7
3. No single economic or management theory provides a complete explanation for alternative infrastructure financing mechanism selection in Nigeria.p.9
4. Nigeria's low share of global Sukuk and green bond markets at 0.15% underscores domestic capital market shallowness as a constraint on instrument choice.p.10
5. Existing infrastructure research in Nigeria remains predominantly descriptive and project-centered rather than comparative or decision-support focused.p.2