Outlook: Agentic AI and the Future of Enterprise Software (Vista Equity Partners)

Summary

• Roughly 20 to 40 percent of workers use AI in some capacity at work, but only 1% of enterprise data is currently incorporated into AI solutions.p.2
• Since 2014, the software sector has experienced nine downturns of meaningful magnitude, and approximately 96% of software companies are private.p.4
• Corporate investment in AI across model providers, infrastructure and software tripled in a single year, reaching $37 billion in 2025.p.6
• Bain & Company projects $5 to $7 trillion in cumulative value flowing to the software and application layer by 2030.p.11
• Agentic solutions alone represent an estimated $3 trillion of incremental value.p.11
• More than $60 billion in insurance premiums flow through the Duck Creek platform annually.p.10

Key insights

1. Vista argues that Agentic AI will transform enterprise software from tools that support work into systems that perform work.p.2
2. In the 2014-20 period, SaaS valuation multiples compressed before a decade-long expansion.p.4
3. Value creation in prior transitions flowed first to semiconductors, then hardware and infrastructure, then software and services.p.5
4. The application layer captured more than half of all AI dollars.p.6
5. Global labor value is estimated at $50 to 60 trillion, with $15 to 20 trillion addressable by Agentic AI and 10 to 30% of that accruing to application software.p.11
6. Vista believes a foundation for AI value requires three structural attributes: context, trust and scale.p.9
7. Private ownership can provide the patient capital needed for multi-year transformations to agentic software.p.14