National Security Functions of Uzbekistan's Banking System in Limiting the Political Consequences of International Financial Dependence (Ilgʻor iqtisodiyot va pedagogik texnologiyalar.)

Summary

• Remittances to Uzbekistan reached $18.9 billion in 2025, up 27.2% in one year.p.3
• Foreign remittances rose from 16.5% to 21% of household income.p.3
• About 78% ($12.3 billion) of $15.8 billion in remittances in January-October 2025 came from Russia.p.3
• Gross external debt reached $82.2 billion on 1 January 2026, up $18.1 billion (28%) in a year.p.3
• Public external debt was $40.5 billion (27.5% of GDP) and corporate debt $41.7 billion (28.4%); gross debt was 55.8% of GDP.p.3
• More than 90% of international reserves consist of gold.p.2

Key insights

1. Remittances are assessed as the riskiest dependence channel because annual growth of 27.2% and a 21% income share meet a single-source share above three quarters.p.3
2. A 2024 World Bank study found remittances equalled 14% of GDP and prevented poverty from rising from 9.6% to 16.8%.p.3
3. Corporate debt makes up about 51% of gross external debt and about 64% of its annual growth (author's calculation), and over 90% of it is long-term.p.3
4. International financial institutions hold 55-56% of public external debt.p.3
5. Remittances are the most dangerous dependence channel (78% from one source), and gold above 90% of reserves raises price sensitivity.p.4
6. The banking system is argued to serve four national security functions: shock absorption, channel diversification, debt and currency risk management, and infrastructure security.p.4