Monetary Policy Report - October 2026 (Repositorio Institucional - BanRep)

Summary

• The most affected departments (Caldas, Chocó, Risaralda, Quindío, and Valle del Cauca) represent approximately 14.5 % of the national added value.p.1
• The technical team assumed the earthquake affected economic activity during the remaining 52 days of the third quarter of 2026.p.1
• Three methodologies were developed to analyze transmission channels, including direct impacts across 126 affected municipalities.p.1
• The macroeconomic impact was quantified against a counterfactual third-quarter annual GDP growth projection of 2.2 %.p.2

Key insights

1. The earthquake's primary effects include infrastructure damage, productive activity disruptions, altered household and business consumption/investment, and increased emergency spending.p.1
2. Confecámaras preliminary findings indicate impacts concentrated in commerce, accommodation, food services, and manufacturing.p.2
3. Government rental subsidies were expected to offer limited short-term offset in Q3 as payments were not fully materialized.p.2
4. Household consumption declines were partially counterbalanced by purchases made by unaffected households for donations.p.2
5. Capital formation was negatively impacted by company reports of damaged inventory, goods, and infrastructure.p.2