Investing in Autism Therapy: Key Trends Shaping the US ABA Therapy Sector (L.E.K. Consulting)

Summary

• The US ABA therapy market is estimated at $25 billion to $35 billion-plus, growing 10%-13% annually.p.1
• Annual turnover among frontline Registered Behavior Technicians is sometimes 100%-plus.p.1
• All 50 states now support ABA therapy through commercial mandates and/or Medicaid waivers.p.2
• Commercial rates typically exceed Medicaid by 15%-25%, making payer mix a key margin lever.p.2
• L.E.K. has advised on more than a dozen ABA and pediatric behavioral health projects since 2018.p.3

Key insights

1. Waitlists remain common in underserved geographies because of provider workforce constraints, indicating substantial white space.p.1
2. Persistent shortages of Board Certified Behavior Analysts and high technician turnover make labor dynamics make-or-break for investors.p.1
3. Home-based therapy is still the largest setting, while center-based programs are the fastest growing.p.2
4. Payers are increasingly implementing utilization management protocols, especially in high-growth states.p.2
5. Leading providers invest in integrated records, revenue cycle tools and analytics, and some use virtual reality to help children rehearse real-world scenarios.p.2
6. Strong players build diversified payer mixes, while poor performers lean on out-of-network or low-rate Medicaid contracts.p.3