Fueling Growth: Consumer and M&A Themes Reshaping Nutritional Supplements (Baird)

Summary

• The U.S. nutritional supplements market is valued at $69 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach nearly $87 billion by 2028 with a CAGR of over 5%.p.2
• Digital platforms are expanding rapidly, with Amazon capturing ~$20 billion in supplement sales and growing at ~21% per annum.p.4
• MaryRuth's generates over $70 million on TikTok Shop, where nearly 80% of total U.S. platform sales are tied to health and beauty products.p.4
• Women's health represents a large underserved market, as 73% of women do not treat menopause symptoms and 80% experience hormonal imbalance.p.5
• Active lifestyle trends drive demand, with Google searches for strength training rising over 40% compared to pre-pandemic levels.p.7
• Probiotics and digestive aids now represent ~10% of total supplement sales in measured retail channels.p.8
• Practitioner-grade supplement sales are growing at ~7% annually, outpacing the broader market as 55% of protein powder users seek clinical studies.p.9

Key insights

1. GLP-1 medication adoption creates new demand for companion supplements to manage side effects, nutrient deficiencies, and muscle loss.p.4
2. Amazon and TikTok Shop act as major engines of discovery, rapid trial, and accelerated distribution for consumer health brands.p.4
3. Consumer focus on mental health is rising, with 93% believing emotional health is as vital as physical health and 45% interested in mood-improving supplements.p.5
4. Metabolic health is becoming a foundational pillar of wellness alongside GLP-1 treatments to promote blood sugar control and weight management.p.6
5. Strength training has expanded across all age and gender demographics, driving growth for protein powders, creatine, and active nutrition products.p.7
6. Over 75% of adults express concern about aging, shifting focus toward extended healthspan and cellular longevity.p.8
7. Gut health has evolved past basic probiotics to encompass prebiotics, postbiotics, and synbiotics that support the gut-brain axis.p.8
8. Strategic repositioning allows established ingredients like magnesium and creatine to address new health applications like sleep and brain function.p.10
9. M&A activity slowed over the past 12-18 months as strategic CPG buyers paused to optimize internal portfolios and digest past acquisitions.p.11
10. Private equity investors are targeting brands characterized by high subscription retention, omni-channel presence, and proven clinical validation.p.13