Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty (IEA)

Summary

• Electric car sales in the second quarter of 2026 were 4% higher year-on-year and 35% above the first quarter, even as global car sales declined.p.5
• EVs accounted for 24% of global car sales in the first half of 2026, while global car sales were down around 5% year-on-year.p.5
• Electric car sales are now expected to reach 29% of total car sales worldwide in 2026.p.5
• Chinese car exports grew by 65% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, and electric car exports grew by over 120%.p.6
• The share of electric cars in China's car exports rose from around 35% in 2025 to more than 45% in the first half of 2026.p.6
• Over 1 million electric car exports from China over the last 18 months have not yet been registered as sales in other countries.p.6
• Incumbent carmakers still account for around 98% of ICE car sales but only around 55% of global electric car sales.p.6

Key insights

1. Road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use, making the sector exposed to fuel price spikes.p.5
2. Over 9 million electric cars were sold worldwide in the first half of 2026, with more than 5 million sold in the second quarter alone.p.9
3. Electric car sales in Europe were 30% higher in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025, and EU electric car share exceeded 30% versus 27% in 2025.p.10
4. Smaller markets saw remarkable growth, including Colombia (+300%), New Zealand (+180%), Singapore (+110%) and Uruguay (+170%).p.12
5. Global electric car sales are expected to grow around 10% in 2026, reaching 23 million and a share of 29%.p.14
6. In 2025, China produced around 30 million cars, 10% higher than 2024, and China was responsible for 30% of global car sales, up from 2% in 2000.p.15
7. EV-specific components represented only 10% of the automotive supplier market in 2024, but their share has grown nearly sevenfold since 2019.p.22
8. Volkswagen indicated in 2026 that it may need to cut a further 50 000 jobs by 2030.p.25