Competition Study 2025: Competitive Situation in the German Fixed-Network Market (VATM / DIALOG CONSULT)

Summary

• The total German fixed and mobile telecommunications market is estimated at €60.8 billion in 2025, against €60.5 billion the previous year.p.6
• At the end of 2025, copper connections based on Telekom infrastructure will still represent 63% of all active connections.p.9
• The total market comprises 39.3 million connections, with Telekom fiber connections at 2.0 million or 5.1%.p.9
• Fiber connections of all competitors reach 4.1 million or 10.4%.p.9
• Even in the optimistic scenario, only 15 million fiber connections will be actively used by the end of 2030.p.10
• Telekom dominates its fiber platform with a market share of over 95% at the end of 2024.p.14
• Competitors together can reach at most 20 to 25% market share on the Telekom fiber network in the long term.p.14

Key insights

1. The fixed-network segment is worth €33.1 billion and the mobile segment €27.7 billion.p.6
2. In the pessimistic scenario for 2030, DSL has 56.4% and fiber 26.3%, while in the optimistic scenario DSL has 42.5% and fiber 38.6%.p.10
3. On the Telekom fiber platform, little competition takes place despite more than 2 million active customers.p.13
4. Telekom lost 26 thousand broadband customers in the first half of 2025 as DSL customers declined.p.12
5. The study argues that insufficient regulation by the Bundesnetzagentur is the main reason competitors lose share.p.8