Buying Capacity Before It Exists: Advance Payments and Supply Commitments in AI Infrastructure (Research Square)

Summary

• GE Vernova's quarterly gross firm-backlog additions doubled from 8 to 16 GW between the first and third quarters of 2026, while new commitments fell from 21 to 11 GW.p.2
• Conversions contributed 80.6% of gross firm-backlog additions over the nine months.p.2
• In December 2024, GE Vernova described 9 GW of fixed-price reservations for 2027–2028 slots.p.3
• Siemens Energy's contract-liability cash-flow adjustments total €5.359 billion, against capital expenditure outflows of €1.125 billion, a ratio of 4.76.p.11
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reports group contract liabilities of ¥2,161.8 billion, compared with a restated ¥1,434.5 billion a year earlier.p.11
• BKV's October supply contract is worth approximately $800 million and credits $80 million in prior reservation fees.p.13

Key insights

1. The core evidence contains 62 numerical observations from 15 official company disclosures.p.7
2. GE Vernova's disclosed components sum to 54 GW against a combined 55 GW, and the database keeps the 1 GW discrepancy.p.9
3. Quarterly conversions rose from 6 to 10 to 13 GW while new reservations were 19, 18 and 8 GW.p.10
4. New commitments declined 47.6% between the first and third quarters.p.10
5. Counting conversions again alongside new commitments would report 81 GW of inflow instead of 52 GW.p.10
6. Siemens Energy reported medium-sized turbine capacity rising from about 50 units to about 80.p.12
7. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries targets 30% capacity growth by fiscal 2028.p.12
8. Windstar's $61.93 million deposit represented 40% of the turbine contract price.p.15