2024 Geostrategic Outlook (EY)

Summary

• Mentions of geopolitics and political risk in companies' public documents skyrocketed 600% in 2022 and have remained elevated in 2023.p.6
• The EY CEO Outlook Pulse found that 99% of CEOs are planning to invest in AI.p.8
• Elections in 2024 will cover markets representing about 54% of the global population and nearly 60% of global GDP.p.12
• According to Global Trade Alert, the number of trade interventions has increased by nearly 180% in the past five years.p.14
• In the July 2023 EY CEO Outlook Pulse survey, 99% of CEOs said they plan to reconfigure supply chains and make other strategic changes.p.16
• An estimated $7.4 trillion in trade is at risk of disruption at maritime chokepoints in East Asia alone, and at least 95% of global data flows through undersea cables.p.18
• Only 5% of UNFCCC parties had climate adaptation plans in 2021, rising to more than 80% in 2022.p.24

Key insights

1. Only 49% of employees already are or expect to be using GenAI in the next 12 months, compared to 84% of employers.p.9
2. India's May and June election will see citizens representing 1.4 billion people vote.p.12
3. Only 22% of India's labor force has an advanced degree, compared to 37% in China.p.16
4. The percentage of fish stocks fished at unsustainable levels rose from 10% in 1970 to 35% in 2019.p.18
5. The number of countries with extreme water stress rose from 17 in 2019 to 25 in 2023.p.20
6. Global production of rare earths increased 131% in the five years to 2022.p.20
7. China plans to install 200GW of renewables and start rolling out $72 billion in tax breaks to boost EV demand.p.22
8. Storms, wildfires and floods alone caused losses of about 0.3% of GDP globally each year in the 2012-2021 period, according to Swiss Re.p.24