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The paper investigates the dynamic relationships between headline inflation, official naira/US-dollar exchange rate, and returns of five cryptocurrencies using a seven-variable structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model.
Ethereum accounted for $12.3 billion of the $19.08 billion global market for tokenized real-world assets excluding stablecoins in early January 2026.
The dataset includes 1,095 daily observations per cryptocurrency, generating a total of 6,570 observations for analysis in EViews.
Predicting cryptocurrency return levels out-of-sample is highly challenging, with every model producing a negative out-of-sample R², where Random Forest performs best at -0.29% and OLS records -1.28%.
Ethereum ETH held by active validators reached an all-time high of 43.80 million ETH in Q3 2026, representing 35.9% of the total ETH supply.
Bitcoin's rolling three-month volatility averaged around 38% after US spot ETFs launched in January 2024, compared to close to 60% before 2024.
In 2024, Bitcoin rose 123% to an all-time high of over $108,000, propelled by spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. gathering more than $35 billion in assets.
