The Impact of Investment Flows on Regional Economic Development: An Econometric Assessment of Uzbekistan (ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION)

Summary

• The article develops an econometric approach to assessing the impact of investment flows on the economic development of Uzbekistan's regions, focusing on investment in fixed capital and gross regional product.p.5
• Tashkent city had the largest GRP in 2025 at current prices, UZS 367,222.3 billion, followed by Tashkent region at UZS 180,177.4 billion.p.8
• Navoi region recorded a GRP of UZS 167,964.6 billion in 2025 at current prices.p.8
• No regression coefficient is reported: statements that a 1% increase in investment causes a specific increase in GRP would lack sufficient empirical support until the dataset is assembled.p.8
• The study proposes a two-way fixed-effects panel model with standard errors clustered at the regional level and an alternative model with a one-year lag of investment.p.7
• The article contributes by treating investment intensity, rather than nominal investment volume alone, as the central explanatory concept.p.6

Key insights

1. Samarkand region recorded a GRP of UZS 121,489.5 billion in 2025 at current prices.p.8
2. Andijan region recorded a GRP of UZS 107,717.6 billion in 2025 at current prices.p.8
3. Republic of Karakalpakstan recorded a GRP of UZS 54,076.9 billion and Jizzakh region UZS 52,956.7 billion in 2025.p.8
4. A smaller region may achieve higher investment intensity per capita while still recording a lower total GRP.p.8
5. Investment effects are likely to depend on infrastructure, human capital, industrial structure and institutional capacity.p.9
6. The article hypothesizes that real investment intensity is positively associated with real GRP per capita.p.7
7. Recommendations include an integrated annual regional dataset and a regional investment efficiency dashboard.p.9