The Economic Impact of Immigration Enforcement in the Bay Area (Bay Area Council Economic Institute)

Summary

• The Bay Area is home to over 2.6 million immigrants, over 477,000 of whom are estimated to be undocumented, with roughly 350,000 participating in the workforce.p.3
• The Bay Area stands to lose up to $67 billion in regional GDP and $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue if undocumented immigrants are removed from the regional economy.p.3
• Undocumented workers earn an estimated $21.5 billion annually, averaging about $61,200 per worker.p.4
• Undocumented workers represent 19% of the administrative support and waste management sector, 15% of accommodation and food services, and 13% of construction.p.4
• Removal of a primary undocumented earner from a mixed-status household would cause an average household income loss of 69%, affecting nearly 130,000 households.p.5
• In mid-2025, Congress approved a $170 billion increase in immigration enforcement funding.p.7

Key insights

1. Undocumented workers generate $3.6 billion in federal income taxes, $1 billion in state income taxes and $446 million in local property taxes.p.4
2. Undocumented households retain about $16.5 billion in purchasing power, generating an additional $2.2 billion in sales and excise taxes.p.4
3. The average mixed-status household income would fall from $117,000 to $36,000.p.5
4. An estimated 622,000 noncitizens were deported between January and December 2025, and more than 68,000 individuals were held in ICE custody as of early 2026.p.7
5. Net foreign immigration to the Bay Area dropped 41% in 2025, from 57,000 to 34,000.p.11
6. Roughly 73% of the 477,000 undocumented immigrants are in the workforce, compared to 58% of native-born residents.p.10
7. Removing undocumented workers would cause nearly $42 billion in direct GDP effects, rising to $54 billion with indirect effects and $67 billion with induced effects.p.18