Stock Market Indicators and Human Development in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis (British Journal of Advanced Research)

Summary

• The study examines the effect of stock market indicators on human development in Nigeria from 1993 to 2024.p.1
• Market capitalization to GDP averaged 21.6% and peaked at 30.51% in 2007.p.2
• The stock market turnover ratio reached a maximum of 34.8% in 2008.p.2
• The ARDL model has an R-squared of 0.796564.p.9
• At lag 1, a 1% increase in the logarithm of listed companies raises HDI by 0.049 units.p.9

Key insights

1. Short-run effects of the lagged number of listed companies, market capitalization to GDP and turnover ratio on HDI are statistically significant and positive.p.1
2. The value of shares traded stood at approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2024, highlighting limited market depth.p.2
3. The KPSS tests show a mix of I(1) and I(0) variables, justifying an ARDL approach.p.8
4. Long-run estimates for all four stock market indicators are statistically insignificant.p.9
5. The market capitalization to GDP ratio raises HDI by 0.0009 units at lag 1.p.10
6. Diagnostic tests show normally distributed residuals, no serial correlation and no heteroscedasticity.p.11