EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer: 2027 Outlook (EY)

Summary

• US total deal volumes (deals $100m+) are up 17% year to date through Q3 2026.p.2
• Total US deal volumes are expected to rise 2% in 2027, following three consecutive years of double-digit growth.p.3
• Activity in 2027 would be roughly 22% above its 2015-19 average.p.3
• US corporate M&A deal volumes are up 22% year to date through Q3 2026.p.5
• Corporate M&A volumes are expected to consolidate at historically elevated levels in 2027, following 41% cumulative growth since 2023.p.6
• US private equity deal volumes are up 5% year to date through Q3 2026.p.7

Key insights

1. US total deal volumes are up 17% year to date (YTD) through Q3 2026.p.2
2. Deal volumes are expected to rise 2% in 2027 after three consecutive years of double-digit growth.p.3
3. Expected 2027 deal activity is roughly 22% above its 2015-19 average.p.3
4. US corporate M&A deal volumes are up 22% YTD through Q3 2026.p.5
5. Corporate M&A volumes are expected to consolidate at elevated levels in 2027 after 41% cumulative growth since 2023.p.6
6. US private equity deal volumes are up 5% YTD through Q3 2026.p.7
7. Moderate private equity deal volume growth is expected in 2027 as exit conditions strengthen and pressure to deploy capital persists.p.8
8. The baseline scenario shows private equity deal volume growth of 4% for 2027.p.8