Analysis of the Influence of Non-Performing Loans and Capital Adequacy Ratio on Banking Systemic Risk (Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Bisnis Indonesia (JABISI))

Summary

• Data were collected from 200 banking practitioners, auditors and financial regulators in Indonesia and analysed with IBM SPSS version 26.p.1
• NPL has a positive significant effect on systemic risk (β = 0.428), while CAR has a negative significant effect (β = -0.376).p.1
• The two variables together explain 34.7% of the variation in systemic risk.p.1
• Indonesia's NPL level rose from 2.53% in 2019 to 3.06% in 2021, according to OJK.p.2
• NPL and systemic risk correlate at r = 0.513, CAR and systemic risk at r = -0.462, and NPL and CAR at r = -0.298.p.8
• Bank practitioners (n = 112) rate systemic risk higher, with a mean of 3.214, than regulators and academics (n = 88), at 3.012.p.9

Key insights

1. Non-performing loans are defined as loans whose payments have been delayed by at least 90 days.p.2
2. The NPL effect on systemic risk has a t value of 7.183, and the CAR effect a t value of -6.308.p.7
3. Data collection ran from March to May 2026 with a return rate of 91%.p.5
4. Cronbach's alpha is 0.824 for NPL, 0.791 for CAR and 0.853 for systemic risk.p.5
5. Prior research on China found the benefit of higher CAR declines above 15.5%.p.4
6. Perception of CAR differs significantly between practitioners and regulators (p = 0.018).p.9