CFTC

Regulator · US · 3 documents

Key number

20 billion USD

Kalshi monthly trading volume by early 2026. Academic research p.19

Key number

$2 billion

Polymarket investment by ICE. Finance and Society p.14

Key number

71 million R$

Federal Police crypto seizures in 2025. Revista Tópicos. p.20

Profiting From Prediction

Research paperAcademic researchNovember 202683 pages

An anonymous trader earned nearly half a million dollars in profit on a prediction market platform by wagering on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before his capture by the U.S. military.

Crypto-Assets and the Need for International Regulatory Harmonization: Challenges for the Prevention of Money Laundering and for the Legal Certainty of Global Financial Markets

Research paperRevista Tópicos.October 202661 pages

Cryptoasset seizures in criminal investigations by Brazil's Federal Police reached a record R$ 71 million in 2025.

The Nihilism Industry: Streaming Disavowal and Ressentiment in the Age of Prediction Markets

Research paperFinance and SocietyAugust 202617 pages

By early 2026, Kalshi surpassed $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday as the prediction market industry grew nearly 400% year-on-year.